Post-Inflation Trends in Medical Payments Through 2025—A WCRI FlashReport

By Rebecca (Rui) Yang, Olesya Fomenko

June 30, 2025 Related Topics: Medical Costs

This study examines how the high-inflation period of 2021–2023 has affected medical payments in workers’ compensation through 2025—particularly in states that tie their medical fee schedules to general economic inflation measures. The findings are especially relevant as policymakers and stakeholders continue to grapple with inflationary pressures.

The report analyzes how different fee schedule update methods—ranging from broad economic indexes like the Consumer Price Index and wage measures to medical-specific indexes such as the Producer Price Index for health care services—have influenced medical cost growth in workers’ compensation since 2020. While general health care prices rose steadily at about 3 percent per year, the study explores why workers’ compensation medical payments varied more widely across states.

Drawing on multiple data sources, the report uses inflation figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and workers’ compensation data from WCRI’s CompScope™ studies and Detailed Benchmark/Evaluation database, which includes claims from insurers, state funds, and self-insured employers. Nonhospital price trends are tracked through WCRI’s Medical Price Index for Workers’ Compensation, and hospital outpatient trends are based on WCRI’s Hospital Outpatient Payment Index. Fee schedule data come from WCRI’s 2025 fee schedule study, RefMed® data, and Medicare. The analysis covers trends from 2012 through 2025.

Post-Inflation Trends in Medical Payments Through 2025—A WCRI FlashReport. Rebecca Yang and Olesya Fomenko. June 2025. FR-25-03.

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Research Questions:

  • How did workers’ compensation medical payments change following the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and what drove those changes?
  • Why did prices for nonhospital professional services in workers’ compensation grow faster in most states after 2021?
  • What happened to the growth of workers’ compensation fee schedules for nonhospital professional services as general inflation slowed between 2023 and 2025?
  • What factors contributed to the increase in ambulatory surgery center (ASC) and hospital payments between 2021 and 2023?
  • How do fee schedules affect the growth of medical prices in workers’ compensation, particularly for nonhospital and hospital outpatient services?

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